Traditional media – you can smell the fear …

If ever there was an invitation list I wish I was on it’s this one:  Herb Allen and his boutique bank Allen & Company has for the past 27 years organised a ‘by invitation only’ retreat in Sun Valley (Idaho) for the who’s who of the world’s media.  This year is different though – you can smell the fear.  At least that’s what I am told.  Traditional media as we know it is dead.  The digital revolution is upon us and traditional media economies are no longer expected to be viable.  US advertising spend will decline by 1.2% per annum until 2013 (still around US$178Bn though which doesn’t sound so bad to me) and then who knows?  Not PwC whose data I am quoting.  By 2013 25% of US adspend will be online – compare that to SA internet spend of <1% and what do you have?  Even at <1% you can smell the fear here too. 

Why then am I so suspicious of the consensus that seems to exist that the media world as we know it is coming to an end?  Is it perhaps because there is ‘consensus’ – just as there was consensus that Y2K was going to shut down every business, airport, organization and household unless extreme interventions, costing billions of US$, were activated.  Or how about a worldwide pandemic of swine flu that activated nothing more than a worldwide pandemic of hysteria?  Or how about 120 million viewers of the singing sensation Susan Boyle who were absolutely certain she was going to win Britain’s Got Talent.  She didn’t.  Nope.  For me I can see far deeper issues up for discussion at Sun Valley that go way beyond where the next advertising dollar is coming from. 

Democracy exists only while there is a powerful independent media capable of content origination and dissemination.  Media relies on advertising revenue and subscription services to do that and without it media can’t and won’t exist.  No advertising, no media, no democracy.  And as for content aggregation and user generated content (UGC)?  Aggregation is nothing new – most news organizations around the world have been doing this for years.  Just ask SAPA. The only thing different is that technology makes it easier.  The easier it is the more organizations capable of doing it.  The greater the number with that capability the more of a commodity it becomes and the more one needs to differentiate oneself.  The more differentiated the more you can charge.  The more you can charge …. hey sounds like a revenue stream to me.  And as for UGC?  Have you taken a look at the rubbish out there?  The internet is fast becoming a victim of its own success.  Just try and separate fact from fiction.  But even more important than democracy however is the issue of privacy.  And there is no greater threat to privacy right now than social networking sites and user generated content.  Maybe that’s a subject for another time?  Leadership is inspiring.  Be inspired.